Last time we looked at how tactical voting can work in a proportional system, specifically how anti-Brexit voters can coordinate to reduce the number of Brexit party MEPs in Scotland.
In this article we extend this analysis to England and Wales.
The Game Is A Foot |
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by Dr Adrian Worton
Last time we looked at how tactical voting can work in a proportional system, specifically how anti-Brexit voters can coordinate to reduce the number of Brexit party MEPs in Scotland. In this article we extend this analysis to England and Wales.
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by Dr Adrian Worton
As everybody will be aware, this is the week of the European Elections. With the UK initially expected to leave the EU in March (and currently set to leave in autumn), this has been a very unusual campaign. The country's ruling party - the Conservatives - are fearing finishing as low as sixth, whilst a completely newly-formed party appears set to win the most votes and seats on Thursday.
by Dr Adrian Worton
Despite the fact that the 2017 UK General Election was a few weeks ago, it is only recently that we've been able to get the data with the full list of votes for each seat. With this, we are going to reprise the analysis we did in 2015, and look at how the election would have looked under a proportional system. by Dr Adrian Worton
We are conducting the autopsy of our General Election 2017 model. Last time we looked at our individual predictions for each party. The issue with those is that we have little say over the location of these predictions. For example, if the bookies believe a party will make X seats, then our model will to, even if polling says they will make significantly fewer or more. This time, we are looking at an element of our model that is definitely in our court - the chances of parties winning individual seats. Specifically, we will be looking at how we convert bookies' odds into probabilities. by Dr Adrian Worton
The dust has settled on another election with a surprise result. In this article we are going to review how our General Election model performed, starting with our party-by-party predictions. We will be looking at other aspects of our model output in future articles. by Dr Adrian Worton
Is it really the end of this snap General Election? Yes, we are finally there. And in this post we are going to simulate our General Election model one last time to give our final predictions. We will give party-by-party estimates, individual predictions for each part of the UK, and we will see how our comparisons measure up to elsewhere. At the bottom of this page you can download the official TGIAF Election Dossier, a document which contains our predictions - for the election as a whole, as well as for every constituency. And don't forget, tonight we will be covering the election live here with our innovative analysis. by Dr Adrian Worton
We are just three days away from the 2017 General Election (I know, it feels like the campaign has been going on forever), and some of you will be planning to stay up all night and follow the results as they come in. Well, we are going to be covering the election live, as we did in 2015, on TGIAF! We will be using our 2017 General Election model to give predictions and to signify where the interesting results lie.
by Dr Adrian Worton
In this article we are going to take a departure from looking specifically at our General Election model, which is based on bookies’ odds, and instead look at the numbers from the previous election. Specifically, we are going to consider the vote share. By building a very simple model using the 2015 election, we can estimate how many seats each party will get in 2017 for various scenarios. You can find an editable version of this model in the Appendix at the end of this article. by Dr Adrian Worton
We are looking at how a Progressive Alliance (generally, parties opposed to hard Brexit) can prevent a Conservative majority. Last time we looked at the south of England, an area which is dominated by Conservative-held seats. This time, we look at the traditional Labour heartlands in the north of England. |
Author: Adrian
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