In our attempts to model the Premier League, we first produced one simulator, which we analysed in order to understand why it produced highly variable results. We have now created a second simulator, and now we will look to see how it has performed.
by Adrian Worton
In our attempts to model the Premier League, we first produced one simulator, which we analysed in order to understand why it produced highly variable results. We have now created a second simulator, and now we will look to see how it has performed.
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by Adrian Worton
Previously, we unveiled the first TGIAF Premiership Simulator, which used odds from bookmakers to generate a season's worth of results. However, we found that our simulator threw up a number of unrealistic outcomes, which could partly be down to unrealistically few victories for favourites. by Adrian Worton
Last time we unveiled the TGIAF Premier League simulator. Whilst it is a sturdy model which uses form to dictate odds for matches, and therefore the probability of each team winning, it has thrown up results which seem to volatile, with smaller clubs like Crystal Palace, Sunderland and Stoke City often fighting for the title, and with large clubs such as Man United, Chelsea and Spurs just avoiding relegation. As we want our model to be as realistic as possible, to allow us to do more interesting analysis with it, we now need to consider what has gone wrong with it, and how we can improve it. by Adrian Worton
We have been slowly building a Premier League simulator. To do this we first needed to work out a relationship between two team's form and their chances of beating each other, before moving our focus to the Championship and calculating how much weaker than the Premiership it is. All this was enabled by our comprehensive database giving us results and odds for all Premier League games from the 2004/05 season to the 2013/14 season. by Adrian Worton
Yesterday we found equations which accurately create odds for Premiership matches. To do this we used the form of each team over the last 38 matches as a measure of strength to influence our model. However, this won't work for matches involving clubs recently promoted from the Championship, since clearly 3 points are harder to earn in the Premiership than the Championship. So in this article, we aim to get an exact measure of how much stronger the Premier League actually is. by Adrian Worton
As we have created a thoroughly detailed collection of Premier League data, which includes odds and results, we can look into recreating our work on the World Cup, and create a relationship to predict odds in the Premier League. by Adrian Worton
Following the success of the World Cup simulator we built in May & June, the next logical step is to find a new competition to work on. |
Author: Adrian
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